For the last four decades, we have lived in a constantly evolving world, described as VUCA – volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous.
V – Volatility: lack of stability and predictability
U – Uncertainty: lack of ability to foresee what major changes might be coming
C – Complexity: moving in ways experts have never seen before
A – Ambiguity: problems in understanding what is the best course of action
The term was coined to explain the turmoil of a post-cold war world. It aimed to create meaning in the face of uncertainties in a world of constant change, increasingly interconnected and digital. Business and talent models sought to understand this context and enable success within this backdrop.
However, the COVID-19 pandemic, the climate situation and even many geo-political challenges faced by humanity in the last few years created a scenario so strange and unfathomable, that even VUCA couldn’t explain it, or do justice to it.
Businesses, leaders and human beings found that they suddenly had many more variables to contend with, several of which were completely beyond their control, seemed to make no logical sense or patterns and were totally unpredictable.
What used to be volatile became brittle – something that cannot be relied on, and may break down any time out of the blue, despite looking reliable, flexible, and even unbreakable.
People went from being merely uncertain, to feeling constantly anxious, and as a result, helpless and unable to make decisions. Fear built up that any available option could potentially turn out terribly wrong.
What was earlier complex, evolved into utter chaos and was completely non-linear. Cause and consequence were no longer possible to assess in advance, and seemingly small and unrelated events and decisions suddenly had huge, disconnected impact.
And all this made the world we live in, not just ambiguous, as explained by VUCA, but in fact totally incomprehensible. Non-linear results of events and decisions seemed to lack logic and purpose. One couldn’t grasp the cause because it could either be long gone, or just be too appalling or simply out of whack!
So, think back to the events over the last few years, and you will realise that the world is VUCA no more.
What we inhabit now, is a BANI world. Brittle, Anxious, Non-Linear and Incomprehensible.
Daunting and waiting to be explored and grappled with…
(Credit for the term BANI goes to anthropologist & futurist, Jamais Cascio)